By Edelmiro Franco V. | 2025-05-30

BOGOTÁ -- China's proposal to sell J-10CE combat aircraft to Colombia during President Gustavo Petro's recent visit to Beijing has raised alarm among military and geopolitical analysts, who warn of potential national, regional and international security implications.

The specialized defense portal Infodefensa first reported the Chinese offer, which came while Petro visited Beijing May 12-16 to attend the Fourth Ministerial Meeting of the China-CELAC Forum. Petro held talks on various subjects with Chinese officials, including President Xi Jinping on May 14.

A central goal of the trip was signing a letter of intent for Colombia to join China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), the sweeping global infrastructure program aimed at expanding Beijing's economic and strategic influence.

However, the proposal to supply J-10CE fighter jets reportedly caught the Colombian delegation off guard.

Colombia's air force operates aging Israeli-made Kfir fighters, most of which have served for over three decades. With the fleet nearing the end of its operational life, officials consider their replacement an urgent priority.

China offered 24 J-10CE fighters at a unit cost of $40 million, a price that includes air-to-air weaponry and financing options, according to the May 16 Infodefensa report. The deal leaves room for Colombia to expand the fleet.

Accepting the Chinese offer would mark a significant shift in Colombia's defense posture and the military's operational philosophy. The military historically has chosen US and Western systems. An embrace of China could alter the regional balance of power.

Such a move may affect Colombia's security dynamics with its neighbors and reshape its role in hemispheric defense policy, analysts caution.

China's jet gambit

Colombian air force Brig. Gen. (ret.) Juan Carlos Gómez, associate professor at the William J. Perry Center for Hemispheric Defense Studies at the National Defense University in Washington, has raised serious concerns over China's offer of warplanes.

Colombia had already signed a letter of intent to acquire Swedish Gripen fighters, aircraft designed to meet NATO standards, he emphasized.

"That decision reflects a clear preference for Western technology," he told Entorno.

Switching to China's J-10CE, he warned, would represent a major doctrinal shift for the Colombian air force. "It would also complicate maintenance and support logistics, since Colombia has never operated Chinese systems," Gómez said.

Especially concerning to him was that the Chinese proposal apparently falls outside the scope of a long-standing technical and financial assessment that has guided Colombia's search for a replacement for its aging Israeli fighter jets.

"Over a decade of careful evaluation could be undermined if the government moves forward without rigorous analysis," he said. "That risks disrupting the coherence of our modernization process."

Colombia's geography, he said, demands aircraft with extended range, strong performance in mountainous terrain, and the versatility to handle both defensive and offensive roles.

While Gómez acknowledged the J-10CE's modern avionics and agility, he said its limited range falls short of what Colombia requires for long-range strategic missions.

"Gripen aircraft offer more autonomy, which is critical in our operational context," he said.

Gómez tied the Chinese offer to Beijing's growing interest in Latin America. "China is clearly expanding its influence, commercially and militarily, across a region that has traditionally relied on Western defense systems," he said.

Accepting the offer, he warned, could lead Colombia into a path of political and technological dependence, with potential fallout for cooperation with NATO and other long-standing allies.

"If Bogotá aligns itself with Beijing to modernize its fleet, it could shift the strategic balance in the region," Gómez said. "Very few Latin American countries operate Chinese military equipment, and this could limit Colombia's interoperability and strategic coordination with Western partners."

He concluded: "A technological pivot of this scale would not only reshape Colombia's defense posture but also carry long-term consequences for its international alliances."

China tests alliances

For Fabio Sánchez, a professor of international relations at Sergio Arboleda University in Bogotá, China's offer to sell combat aircraft to Colombia signals more than just a commercial transaction. It reflects Beijing's growing bid for influence in Latin America.

"This is yet another consequence of China's pursuit of global power," Sánchez told Entorno.

"We are witnessing a new phase in contemporary geopolitics," he said. "Spheres of influence are being redrawn through political, diplomatic and commercial moves by major powers. Military technology sales are part of that strategy."

Latin America's traditional defense landscape has long depended on US, European and Israeli equipment, he said.

"These purchases go far beyond hardware," he explained. "They come with long-term commitments: contracts, maintenance, replacements and training programs."

He traced Colombia's defense doctrine back to its participation in the Korean War (1950-1953).

"Since then, the United States has played a dominant role in shaping our military philosophy," he said. "Plan Colombia [a 2000-2015 US foreign policy initiative] further cemented that influence by transforming tactics and strengthening the armed forces in the fight against drugs and insurgent groups."

Sánchez emphasized the deep-rooted nature of US-Colombia ties, including military cooperation and a diplomatic agenda that prioritizes democracy, counter-narcotics efforts and the fight against organized crime.

"The US market remains vital to Colombian exports," he added.

As Colombia's government explores closer military and economic ties with China, Sánchez warned that the move introduces a new layer of uncertainty.

"We don't yet know how Washington will respond," he said. "But we also can't be certain about what's truly on offer from Beijing."