By Edelmiro Franco V. | 2025-05-12

BOGOTA -- Colombian business associations and top executives are on high alert as the Fourth Ministerial Meeting of the CELAC-China Forum approaches.

CELAC is the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States.

Scheduled for May 13 in Beijing, the summit will draw at least three Latin American presidents and could shift Colombia's geopolitical and economic alignment.

Recent developments have rattled Colombia's business sector, including the Gustavo Petro administration's push to join the BRICS trading bloc and its plan to sign an agreement in Beijing that would formally align Colombia with China's global Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

BRICS is named for early members Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, while the BRI is a global set of Chinese-financed transport projects.

Seventeen foreign ministers from CELAC member states are expected at the Beijing summit, alongside presidents Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of Brazil, Gabriel Boric of Chile and Petro, who currently serves as CELAC's president pro tempore.

Petro aims to finalize Colombia's entry into the BRI during the summit. Several regional peers -- including Uruguay, Ecuador, Venezuela, Chile, Bolivia, Costa Rica, Cuba, Nicaragua, Argentina, Peru and Panama -- have already joined. However, Panama withdrew from the agreement in February, citing almost seven years of limited economic gains.

China uses the BRI as a strategic tool to deepen its economic and political influence across Asia, Africa, Europe and Latin America, many analysts say. Through a web of bilateral and multilateral deals, Beijing has expanded trade routes, financed infrastructure projects and secured access to natural resources in participating countries.

Economic groups in shock

Chinese officials in Bogota have been pressing Petro's administration to sign onto the BRI before he leaves office next year. But the prospect has drawn sharp criticism from major Colombian business associations.

The National Association of Entrepreneurs of Colombia (ANDI), the National Association of Foreign Trade (ANALDEX), the Association of Industrialists of Latin America (AILA) and the Colombian-American Chamber of Commerce (AmCham Colombia) have all voiced strong opposition to Colombia's alignment with the Chinese-led initiative.

ANDI President Bruce Mac Master called the move "quite inopportune and provocative," arguing that the BRI serves as "a logistical mechanism to favor China in its international trade."

The optics of siding with Beijing, at a time of escalating global tariffs, could damage Colombia's trade standing, Mac Master warned in an interview published May 6 by Semana magazine.

"China buys $2 billion [per year] in raw materials from us, while the United States imports a wide range of Colombian products," he said. "Colombia must take a serious look at its international strategy and decide who is a true ally and who is merely looking to access our market."

Private sector leaders say the upcoming CELAC-China summit could send troubling signals just as many Latin American countries seek stronger trade ties with Washington.

These associations have urged Petro's government to proceed cautiously and emphasized that the United States remains Colombia's largest trading partner.

Their concerns, analysts say, are not misplaced.

"Their alarm is justified," said Enrique Prieto, professor of international law at the Universidad del Rosario in Bogotá. After the Beijing meeting, the United States could raise Colombia's basic tariff rate above the current 10%.

Such an increase, he warned, would spell trouble across the region. "It would hurt jobs, tax revenues and security."

Prieto also underscored the limited scope of CELAC, which functions as an intergovernmental forum rather than a formal international organization.

Business leaders push back

The Colombian government's plan to join China's BRI aims to "strengthen cooperation in infrastructure, trade, and technology," Petro announced in mid-April. But private sector leaders are raising serious concerns about the move.

Javier Díaz, president of ANALDEX, called the announcement "inconvenient" in light of the ongoing global trade crisis and tariff tensions between the United States and China.

The agreement could "severely damage not only Colombia's export relationships but also its trade defense mechanisms," Díaz warned on W Radio May 6.

María Claudia Lacouture, president of AmCham Colombia, publicly questioned the government's strategy in a series of posts addressed to Foreign Minister Laura Sarabia on X. Lacouture demanded answers about the economic, geopolitical and industrial impact of joining the initiative.

"What tangible results have other countries seen in terms of economic growth, infrastructure or knowledge transfer?" Lacouture asked.

She pointed out Colombia's yawning trade deficit with China. In 2024, it exceeded $12.3 billion.

"How would joining this initiative create a more balanced trade relationship?" she asked Sarabia.

She continued: "What safeguards will China implement to prevent market distortions or unfair competition that harm Colombian industry and jobs?"

In a May 6 speech at the presidential palace, Petro acknowledged those concerns, saying he does not want "China to be a producer of poverty." China must help rebalance the current trade gap, either through greater investment in Colombia or increased purchases of Colombian goods, he said.

"That's what I plan to discuss," he said.

José Manuel Restrepo, a former finance minister, was blunt in his assessment: "Let's not play with fire!!!"