By Armando Solorzano | 2024-07-26

CARACAS -- The main opposition candidate in Venezuela's presidential elections, Edmundo González, has indicated he will seek "very respectful" relations with China if he defeats incumbent Nicolas Maduro in the July 28 elections.

"The commitments that have been legally acquired will be respected," González stated at the end of May, amid what has been a contentious campaign.

He referred to the multibillion-dollar debt Venezuela has accumulated with China during the administrations of Maduro and his predecessor, Hugo Chávez, who viewed Beijing as a crucial geopolitical ally.

Venezuela owes China approximately $10 billion, analysts estimate. Much of this debt must be repaid with oil, the "black gold" that remains Venezuela's primary bargaining chip despite shifts in the global market.

Maduro, proclaiming "21st century socialism," has prioritized the economy as a central component of foreign policy.

Since succeeding Chávez in 2013, Maduro has continued to align with the authoritarian regimes of China, Russia and Iran.

González has been somewhat reserved about his international agenda, but his background as a career diplomat with extensive professional and intellectual experience in foreign relations hints at his potential approach.

'Bad marriage'

The Chinese-Venezuelan alliance flourished during the Chávez administration (1999-2013). Even as Venezuela's economic difficulties became evident during those 14 years, the partnership between the two countries thrived.

Beijing extended a hand, and Caracas reciprocated by facilitating China's entry into Latin American geopolitics.

In 2014, they elevated their relationship to a "comprehensive strategic partnership," one of the highest levels of alliance attainable with China.

In an article published in the Spanish newspaper El Debate last November, pundit Alex Fergusson said this close relationship resulted in 450 bilateral agreements, 80 joint projects and 17 loans amounting to a total of $62.2 billion.

However, things started to change when Maduro's administration descended into "disorder," resulting in "wasteful resource management and rampant corruption," Fergusson wrote in El Debate, citing an anonymous Chinese official.

The Chinese had to tread carefully with a partner who did not meet their expectations, say analysts.

China and Venezuela are in a "bad marriage," marked by disagreements and conflicts, yet they remain together because each "has something the other needs," Fergusson said.

In this context, he said, Beijing has started a discreet withdrawal, leaving behind "hundreds of thousands of cars, motorcycles, electrical devices and many other gadgets without warranties or spare parts, as well as large unfinished projects."

Meanwhile, Caracas dares not complain, fearing that China will demand prompt repayment of its debt, which is beyond the capabilities of a country plunged into economic ruin.

China's Foreign Ministry recently reaffirmed its unwavering commitment to "respecting the sovereignty and independence of Venezuela."

'A bloodbath'

As such, Venezuelans will head to the polls amid an atmosphere of polarization, uncertainty and fear.

Maduro has warned of "a fratricidal war" and "a bloodbath" if the opposition, particularly the part aligned with González, prevails.

The opposition has faced severe obstacles throughout the electoral campaign, a situation arousing criticism even from Maduro's allies, including Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Colombian President Gustavo Petro.

One of the key points raised is González's status as an impromptu candidate. González, 74, was relatively unknown in the country until a few months ago.

Opposition leader María Corina Machado, who won more than 90% of the vote in October primaries, is campaigning on behalf of González to mobilize voters.

Election authorities barred her from running for office over allegations that she failed to include some food vouchers on her asset declaration.

Venezuela's Supreme Court upheld the decision, which Machado has called illegitimate, unjustified and unconstitutional.

Mass exodus

While many young Venezuelans who support the opposition remain hopeful the upcoming polls will go their way, some say they are prepared to leave the country if Maduro takes on a third six-year term.

According to surveys, if the population remains dissatisfied with the election outcomes, it could mark the beginning of a new chapter in the mass exodus.

"The alternative is to go somewhere else to look for a better life," Ambar Leáñez, a staunch supporter of the opposition, told CNN.

Since 2017, the country's economic, political and social crisis has pushed 7.7 million Venezuelans -- a quarter of the population -- to flee to other countries, marking the largest exodus ever witnessed in Latin America.

A majority, 6.6 million Venezuelans, have resettled in various Latin American countries -- Colombia has become home to 2.8 million, Peru has provided sanctuary for 1.5 million, and in Brazil, Chile and Ecuador, the Venezuelan population stands at approximately 400,000 each.

However, because of the overwhelming strain on neighboring countries, and unfortunate xenophobia in some cases, many others have turned their gaze towards countries like the United States and Spain, seeking opportunities for a better life.

Julio César Pérez, who on July 19 joined the "Neighbors for Venezuela" opposition protests in Maracay, described the future in stark terms.

"For me, it's change or the Darien [Gap]," he told CNN, referring to the notoriously dangerous migration route between Colombia and Panama.