By Marisela Luzardo | 2025-01-24

CARACAS -- The Venezuelan regime "has nothing left but fear," its top foe says, pointing to the sentiment evident in recent actions by dictator Nicolás Maduro as he assumes a third term amid accusations of electoral fraud and increasing international isolation.

"The regime has nothing left. They've lost all popular support, all legitimacy, and stand completely isolated," opposition leader María Corina Machado said in a January 6 interview with AFP.

This "insurmountable" fear, according to Machado, stems from the regime's awareness of its impending defeat.

In response, Maduro has fabricated an image of strength while vainly seeking legitimacy for a government unrecognized by the United States, the European Union and several Latin American nations.

Maduro's order to conduct military exercises on January 22 and 23, involving 150,000 military and police personnel, was the latest attempt to project strength.

This was the largest such display of force ever by one country in Latin America, a region currently at peace.

On January 19, the dictator announced the drills on his social media accounts, declaring, "We are going to defend borders, coasts, cities and the vital elements of the country."

Threatening Guyana

These exercises occurred less than a week after Jorge Rodríguez, the president of Venezuela's National Assembly (a body controlled by Maduro), announced that elections would take place in 2025 to choose a governor for the Essequibo region, which is currently administered by Guyana rather than Caracas.

The Essequibo, spanning approximately 160,000 square km, has long been claimed by Venezuela but remains under Georgetown's control. Rodríguez's remarks echoed Maduro's statements during his January 10 inauguration, where he sought to solidify his grip on power.

"(He will be) the first governor elected by the vote of the people of Essequibo Guyana," proclaimed Maduro, even though Guyana governs the region.

In response, Guyana's Foreign Ministry issued a statement condemning Maduro's announcement as a direct violation of commitments between Caracas and Georgetown.

"The people of Guyana's Essequibo region are Guyanese nationals who live in Guyana's sovereign territory. It would be a flagrant violation of the most fundamental principles of international law, enshrined in the [United Nations] Charter, for Venezuela to attempt to conduct an election in Guyanese territory involving the participation of Guyanese nationals," the ministry said.

Amanza Walton-Desir, the Guyanese opposition's shadow foreign minister, also condemned the threats from the Caracas regime.

Caracas's provocative announcement of impending elections for a governor in Essequibo constitutes "an unprecedented violation of international law, a direct affront to the sovereignty of Guyana and a dangerous escalation of tensions," Walton-Desir stated, as reported by the local media outlet Stabroek News on January 10.

War games

Since the signing of the Argyle Agreement in December 2023 -- where both nations committed to avoiding the use of force amidst rising tensions -- Caracas has taken actions that directly threaten Guyana's security.

Among these measures is the construction of a bridge linking the Venezuelan town of San Martín de Turumbán to the river island of Anacoco, a territory partially claimed by Guyana. Venezuela has also been building a military base on the border for its army.

Venezuela's defense and transportation ministers formally inaugurated the bridge in December.

Last February 9, the American think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies published an analysis accompanied by satellite images showing a significant Venezuelan military buildup near the border in Anacoco.

"Compared to 2021, the recent satellite image from January 13, 2024, also reveals the beginnings of the expansion project at the base with signs of road traffic, significant ground clearing suggesting planning for additional buildings or a vehicle park, and the construction of a small fueling station -- an indication of future construction and military vehicle presence," the report said.

In April, Maduro further escalated tensions by enacting the "Organic Law for the Defense of Guayana Esequiba," which officially declares Essequibo an integral part of Venezuela, designating it as a new state within the nation.

Even though the Venezuelan regime poses a risk to Guyana, Fernando Giraldo, a political analyst and professor at Universidad del Norte in Barranquilla, Colombia, told Entorno he doubts that Maduro's military maneuvers will gain traction.

Maduro's illegitimacy -- compounded by fraudulent elections last July, international isolation and Venezuela's severe internal tensions -- has left the dictator preoccupied with maintaining control by brandishing the state's power, said Giraldo.

Maduro may attempt to "manufacture an international conflict with a nationalist claim" to gain a semblance of legitimacy at home, he warned.

"I don't believe Venezuela can carry this out, but considering Maduro's history as an utterly irresponsible leader, I wouldn't be surprised if he tries to address internal issues with such dangerous tactics," Giraldo said. "He's playing with fire, but it's a game that could backfire spectacularly."

Fear lingers, but resistance grows

In Petare, Venezuela's largest neighborhood, the mood is marked by quiet apprehension over what Maduro may do now that his regime faces increasing isolation.

An informal vendor, reluctant to share her name, told Entorno that "everyone here knows what happened," meaning Maduro's internationally rejected "reelection" in July.

Nearby, a man overhearing the conversation chimed in cautiously.

"There is fear, who knows," he said, sparking a hushed exchange among others.

But the fear is not limited to everyday citizens. The regime itself is gripped by anxiety over a potential popular uprising. In response, Maduro has ordered patrols across major cities and distributed Russian rifles to the Bolivarian militias, the civilian arm of the military, in a gesture of intended intimidation.

Nonetheless, Machado of the opposition remains defiant.

"A few thousand will not be able to deal with 30 million Venezuelans," she declared, signaling that the spirit of resistance endures.