By Roberto Orozco B. | 2025-05-20

SAN JOSÉ, Costa Rica -- Daniel Ortega and Rosario Murillo's regime is deepening military ties with China and Russia in a move that could destabilize Central America, Nicaraguan security watchers warn.

Recent defense agreements, particularly with a Chinese arms manufacturer tied to the People's Liberation Army (PLA), have alarmed analysts tracking the region's fragile security balance.

On May 11, Ortega's government signed a contract with Poly Technologies, a subsidiary of China Poly Group Corporation, which supplies arms and technology to militaries aligned with Beijing.

Nicaraguan state media reported that the deal includes military equipment for the Nicaraguan army, though full details remain undisclosed.

"This is one of the greatest threats to regional stability in recent years," said a Nicaraguan security analyst, who requested anonymity to protect her family from government retaliation. She cited the 1995 Democratic Security Framework Treaty, which commits Central American nations to avoid arms imbalances that could jeopardize peace.

Independent outlet Artículo 66 confirmed on May 12 that the agreement involves advanced military hardware, though the scope remains vague.

Past Chinese military cooperation has been minimal, limited to two naval vessels equipped with missiles in 2022, according to a July 2022 report by Nicaragua's Center for Strategic Research and Analysis (CINAE).

But observers now fear the new agreement could pave the way for transfers of heavier arms, including long-range missiles.

A 2023 investigation into a rumored "missile base that Nicaragua was building with Chinese cooperation in the west of the country, specifically in Punta Cosigüina, where Nicaragua shares the Gulf of Fonseca with El Salvador and Honduras," was never confirmed but cannot be dismissed in light of the new deal," Maj. (ret.) Aníbal Espinoza, formerly of Nicaraguan intelligence but now in exile, said.

"With a company tied to China's military now directly involved, the threat is more plausible than ever," Espinoza told Entorno. "This goes beyond procurement. It signals a dangerous shift in alliances."

Nicaragua-Russia ties

A senior Nicaraguan military delegation, led by Gen. Marvin Elías Corrales, visited Moscow in early May to reaffirm deepening defense ties with Russia.

Corrales, the third-ranking officer in the Nicaraguan army, praised the alliance as "historic" and "strategic" during a May 10 interview with Russian state outlet Sputnik. He highlighted the growing number of Nicaraguan soldiers receiving military education and specialized training in Russia.

"A significant number of our personnel train in Russia, from cadets to professional officers. Many return for advanced courses," Corrales said.

While the Ortega-Murillo regime keeps most details of its Russian military cooperation classified, official records and independent studies reveal extensive collaboration.

Since 2021, Russia has supplied Nicaragua with up to $205 million in military hardware, including aircraft, anti-aircraft systems, 72B1 tanks, patrol boats and missiles.

Between 2015 and 2024, roughly 4,050 Russian military advisers arrived in Nicaragua to train troops in elite units, such as the Special Operations Command, the Communications Battalion and the Mechanized Infantry Brigade.

Meanwhile, more than 1,100 Nicaraguan soldiers have completed military programs in Russia since 2014.

These figures come from legislative decrees regulating the movement of foreign troops, published in La Gaceta, Nicaragua's official newspaper.

Poly scandals

Poly Technologies has been embroiled in a series of global corruption scandals. In Namibia, prosecutors accused the Chinese arms giant of paying kickbacks to secure a $126 million arms deal, prompting a court to seize assets.

In Zimbabwe, investigators tied the company to weapon shipments ahead of the 2008 elections, allegedly funded in part by illicit ivory sales.

Rights groups in the Philippines opposed a 2017 arms deal, warning of Poly's track record of supplying weapons to authoritarian regimes and conflict zones with no human-rights safeguards.

The United States sanctioned Poly twice: first in 2013 for violating the Iran, North Korea, and Syria Nonproliferation Act and again in 2024 for transferring military technology to Russian defense firms during the Ukraine war.

In China, local media have linked the company to tax evasion and alleged protection from senior military officials involved.

Though Poly also operates in civilian sectors, its growing role in the global arms trade continues to raise international concern.