Terrorism
Does Colombia's peace process fuel armed groups' expansion?
Criminal organizations in the country are experiencing both fragmentation and expansion, making peace negotiations increasingly challenging.
By Andrés Pachón |
BOGOTA -- Some observers are wondering if Colombia's ongoing peace negotiations with illegal armed groups are actually enabling those factions to recruit more combatants and expand into new territories.
The absence of a clear strategy in peace talks with such groups, along with the failure to establish an effective system for helping ex-combatants transition to normal life, has resulted in repeated mistakes, Senator Ariel Ávila, of the center-left Alianza Verde party, emphasized.
"The lack of method in peace policy is evident in ceasefires without protocols and the failure to clearly define negotiation agendas, which has led to serious errors," Ávila, a political scientist and former deputy director of the Peace and Reconciliation Foundation, told Entorno.
Ávila contrasted this policy with that of former president Juan Manuel Santos (2010–2018), whose "method was very clear, even if the goal varied."
Under Gustavo Petro's government, "the goal is clear, but there is no method," he added.
Since becoming president in 2022, Petro has advanced a peace policy aimed at negotiating with the far-left insurgent group National Liberation Army (ELN), two factions of the former Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), and the paramilitary group Clan del Golfo.
These organizations share a common designation as terrorist groups and make money through drug trafficking and illegal mining, generating about $3 billion annually, according to a 2019 report by the Peace and Reconciliation Foundation.
Terrorist attacks
The government's peace policy, which includes ceasefires between the Colombian military and various armed groups like the ELN, FARC dissidents and others, seeks to end an internal armed conflict that has claimed an estimated 450,000 lives over six decades, according to the Colombian Truth Commission.
The plan involves helping illegal armed actors disarm and reintegrate into society.
Still, repeated terrorist attacks have forced the government to suspend and later resume ceasefires multiple times, significantly delaying progress on the peace policy.
The recent resurgence of said groups reflects their historical approach to peace negotiations, said Adm. (ret.) Pablo Romero Rojas, secretary general of the Colombian Association of Retired Officers (Acore) of the Military Forces.
These factions often use talks with various governments as a strategy to strengthen their position and explore a transition to political life, he said.
"If the negotiations don't serve their interests, they abandon the process, using the discussions as an opportunity to reorganize, expand their territorial control, and consolidate illegal activities such as drug trafficking, illegal mining and extortion," Romero Rojas told Entorno.
Territorial expansion
Various illegal armed factions have carved out territory of 324,736 square km and now boast 16,770 members combined in Colombia, according to a report by the Colombian military at the end of 2023, published by Noticias Caracol.
Those figures represent 4% growth in territory and 11% growth in membership from the year before, according to the military.
Ávila attributed these trends not only to the lack of a clear strategy but also to the ongoing expansion of the groups.
"Criminal organizations are undergoing a phase of fragmentation and expansion, which complicates peace negotiations for any administration, not just the current one," Ávila said.