By Ivan Sarmiento | 2024-10-29

Cubans are enduring one of the most challenging periods in the past six decades as longtime ties with China unravel.

An economic crisis that began in 2020 was recently compounded by a total blackout lasting over four days and then the impact of Hurricane Oscar, which claimed seven lives and caused extensive material damage.

On the night of October 17, half of Cuba's nine million residents lost electricity, and by the next morning, the entire country was without power.

By October 20, power had been restored to 70% of Cubans, but then Hurricane Oscar struck eastern Cuba, leaving seven dead and widespread devastation across Guantánamo province.

Amid the unfolding tragedy, news broke that China had cancelled several trade agreements with Cuba, insisting that Havana implement "market-oriented" economic reforms.

Beijing's move conveyed a lack of confidence in genuine reforms that could revitalize the Cuban economy and the belief that Cuba's debt exceeds its ability to repay, according to several outlets.

Britain's Financial Times (FT) published an article on October 13, "'China is not Cuba's sugar daddy': Ties between communist nations weaken," analyzing how Cuba's economic collapse is straining its relations with China.

The Cuban state owes substantial sums to major Chinese companies, sources familiar with the trade agreements and Cuba's debts to China told the FT.

Cuba's defaults on payment to China began in 2006 when, during an "energy revolution," the Cuban government started replacing well-functioning American appliances with Chinese equipment, Cuba Noticias 360, an independent Cuban news outlet, reported in October.

Cuba also owes hundreds of millions of dollars to major Chinese companies like Huawei and Yutong, according to a foreign businessman familiar with trade on the island who spoke to the FT.

'Solidarity'

Cuba's unproductive and centralized economy, coupled with a shortage of raw materials, has left the island with few exports and limited offerings for China.

The once-thriving sugar industry has fallen to a low ebb, with production now insufficient even for domestic consumption. This decline has resulted in the cancellation of a long-standing agreement to export 400,000 tons of sugar annually to China.

"China is not Cuba's sugar daddy," Fulton Armstrong, former US national intelligence officer for Latin America, told FT, providing the headline for the article.

"It's mostly a relationship of solidarity statements. It's not a strategic relationship for either country," he added.

This was the situation on October 22 during the visit to Cuba by Li Shulei, a member of the Chinese Politburo and director of the Propaganda Department of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC).

Li expressed China's desire to collaborate with Cuba in promoting traditional ties, expanding friendly cooperation and supporting each other in building a China-Cuba community with a shared future, Chinese state television channel CGTN said.

A "declaration of solidarity" that had been referenced just a day earlier by Lin Jian, spokesman for China's Foreign Ministry, emphasized that "China and Cuba are good friends, good comrades and good brothers" and reaffirmed Beijing's commitment to standing in solidarity with Cuba during its current challenges.

"We believe under the strong leadership of the Communist Party of Cuba, the Cuban people will tide over the current difficulty and advance their socialist cause," the spokesman added.

Despite these declarations of friendship, Cuba does not appear on the list of China's main allies in Latin America.

In the region, only Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Ecuador, Mexico, Peru, and Venezuela have "comprehensive strategic partnerships" with China, the FT noted.

In public, Beijing advocates for Cubans' right to set their own economic policy.

However, Chinese officials have privately "long urged the Cuban leadership shift from its vertically planned economy to something closer to the Chinese model, according to economists and diplomats briefed on the situation," the FT reported.

Cuba's reluctance to implement necessary reforms has perplexed Chinese officials and business leaders, as they hope Havana will embrace market-friendly reforms similar to China's in the late 1970s, according to sources cited by the FT.