By Tony Wesolowsky | 2025-05-02

Moscow and Beijing appear to be stepping up coordination on covert maritime sabotage operations, targeting undersea cables critical to global communications in a campaign that spans from the Baltic Sea to the waters around Taiwan, say analysts.

A string of recent incidents -- many involving Russian- and Chinese-linked vessels -- has raised concerns that the powers are increasingly willing to work together to disrupt critical infrastructure as part of a broader hybrid warfare strategy.

Authorities have reported at least 11 cable damage incidents on the Baltic Sea and around Taiwan since 2023, according to European and Taiwanese officials, the Associated Press said January 28. While some have been attributed to accidents, many bear hallmarks of deliberate sabotage.

"This string of incidents suggests an increasing willingness by Moscow and Beijing to collaborate on maritime sabotage operations," John Dotson, deputy director of the Global Taiwan Institute, said in a post in February for the Jamestown Foundation, a US-based think tank that studies Eurasian security.

A string of suspicious incidents

Both Moscow and Beijing deny involvement in any of the cable incidents, but analysts say the evidence increasingly suggests a coordinated effort -- particularly given the striking similarities in tactics used in both regions.

On January 3, Taiwan's coast guard discovered damaged cables northeast of Yehliu. It suspected a Hong Kong-registered vessel, Shunxing 39, of causing the damage. The ship fled the scene after allegedly scrambling its transponder signals.

From December to January, the Vasily Shukshin, a Russian-operated ship flagged to Belize, loitered off Taiwan's southern coast for almost a month without any clear commercial activity.

These were only the latest in a growing list of suspicious incidents. In 2023, Chinese vessels severed two undersea cables connecting Taiwan to the Matsu Islands. Between 2018 and early 2023, Taiwanese officials recorded at least 20 similar disruptions.

Chinese research into undersea cable cutting dates back at least to 2009, according to a January 10 report by Newsweek.

Russia's hybrid war campaign

Similar tactics have surfaced on the Baltic Sea, where vessels linked to Russia’s "shadow fleet" have been implicated in damage to undersea infrastructure. Ships have reportedly dragged anchors across cable routes or lingered without clear justification in cable-dense areas.

Officials warn the Kremlin is opening a new front in its hybrid war campaign.

"We are witnessing… [a] new reality," Lithuanian Energy Minister Žygimantas Vaičiūnas told POLITICO in a report on April 7, citing a rise in suspicious maritime activity that threatens economic stability in the region.

Russian and Chinese vessels have employed comparable tactics in both regions, suggesting growing operational alignment, say observers.

To counter these threats, NATO launched the "Baltic Sentry" initiative in January to bolster maritime surveillance.

"We are deeply concerned by actions, be they negligent or malicious, which cause damage to or threaten the functioning of critical undersea infrastructure. We strongly condemn acts of sabotage to critical undersea infrastructure," NATO allies said in a joint statement January 14.

The Baltic Sea offers a perfect site for sabotage, say analysts.

According to Windward, a maritime artificial intelligence platform, the Baltic Sea "has chokepoints where cables converge, increasing their susceptibility to damage or sabotage."

In 2023, Recorded Future, a US-based cybersecurity firm, warned of Russia's intensified interest in mapping undersea cable routes, "very likely for potential sabotage or disruption."

Undersea cable security in Latin America

Latin America enjoys certain comparative advantages when it comes to the security of its undersea cables. The region's deep waters and the distance of cable routes from major nodes reduce the risk of sabotage. Many landing points are situated in low-traffic maritime areas with gently sloping seabeds, positioning that facilitates the burial of cables and adds a layer of protection.

However, the region faces critical vulnerabilities -- chief among them, limited redundancy. With relatively few alternative routes, a single cable cut can significantly disrupt communications. This tenuous situation makes the protection of these infrastructures not only essential but increasingly complex, especially amid rising geopolitical tensions.

Threats range from accidental damage (such as ship anchors) and natural disasters (like earthquakes or typhoons) to more-sophisticated risks, including sabotage, espionage during repair operations, and emerging technologies -- particularly those linked to China -- that could sever cables at extreme depths.

Although data are typically encrypted, the physical integrity of the cables remains vital.